South Asian Pulse

THE DYNAMICS OF US IRAN TALKS PROSPECTS OF A PEACE AGREEMENT By Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi

THE DYNAMICS OF US IRAN TALKS PROSPECTS OF A PEACE AGREEMENT
By
Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi Retired Pakistan
Outcome of The War (so far). By now we are amply clear that three countries were fully involved in fighting this war, the United States, Israel and Iran ; few countries passively involved such as Saudia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain ,to an
extent Kuwait and Oman. Now all these countries actively or indirectly part of the conflict had varying objectives. And this fact effected the outcome of The War, and is now profoundly impacting the peace talks and resultantly
expected Terms of Agreement , if it happens at all. This paper will not delve into the Nature and Character of this War, will not discuss its asymmetries , War objectives , who lost and who won etc etc. There can be a different write
up on all these issues whenever the conflict is over.
The importance of First Round of Talks and Role of Pakistan. While Iran was
agreeing to most of the US demands during their parleys in Oman, Israel and
America treacherously attacked Iran violating all international laws and
conventions. Opening with the unethical and immoral decapitating strikes,
killing their highest spiritual leader and many other important commanders in
their very first wave, US soon realized that they have stepped into some
quagmire, and in spite of combined bombing by US and Israeli air powers,
employing the latest guided and lethal arsenal they could not break the WILL
of the Iranian Nation. There were no street protests against the Iranian
Regime, rather the nation got galvanized and vowed to avenge the death of
Ayatullah Ali Khamanai, their spiritual leader. Iran instead of getting
subdued, ,
started hitting back, initially employing rudimentary drones and missiles so
saturate the enemy air defense systems. After initial intense launching of
decoys and low tech drones and missiles , Iran started expanding the war
zone by hitting all American Bases in the Middle East, while severely
punishing Israel with modern precision guided missiles. This unexpected
reaction surprised the friends and the foes.
At this important juncture, Pakistan’s Deputy PM / FM Ishaq Dar visited
China and the communique issued clearly indicated Chinese stance
opposing the attack by US- Israel forces and supported the right of Iran’s
self defense. That was the first major change in the situation. Pakistan’s
ability to simultaneously open communication channels with US and China
on one hand, and Arabs and Iranians on the other hand proved handy, and
the world attention focused on Pakistan’s efforts asking the warring nations
for a ceasefire. Pakistan enjoyed full support of Chinese brothers in this
arduous task. To bring a Super Power(US), a rogue state (Israel) and a highly
resilient nation(Iran) on a table was not an easy task. However Pakistan
succeeded in doing that and it become a historic moment. A ceasefire after
intense fighting (though asymmetrical ) of forty days was a crown for which
the entire world showered praises on Pakistan’s military and political
leadership.
Why the Table-talks facing So Many Snags and Hitches ? Deep rooted
animosity and bitterness between Iran and US-Israel duo spanning five
decades could not be overcome in one sitting. However the fragile ceasefire
still holds not withstanding the threatening tones and actions of both the
sides. To understand the state of minds of the various warring and the
affected nations , we need to analyze what each entity must be considering.
President Trump. Isolated and getting unpopular (if ‘No King’ protests are
any indicator) with each passing day, must be feeling the heat of his decision
to support Israel’s interest more than the US interests in the Middle East.
European Union and NATO Countries not supporting his decisions, rather
most of them totally opposing this Great Gamble, that in any case he has
lost. Afraid of his possible impeachment, that certain political quarters are
demanding, he is also apprehensive of Vice President’s rising popularity,
because J D Vance is the one who could replace Trump in case the later is
forced to step down. Vance is also known to be a critic of initiating this war.
Some analyst also suspect that the calling back of J D Vance from
Islamabad in haste, as the talks were showing some prospects of initial
breakthrough, is attributable to the fear of J D Vance’s popularity. Thus
Trump is looking for some face saving twist in the ground situation, that can
enable him to come on the negotiating table with some grace.
Israel And Netanyahu. Iran and its proxies are physical impediment in the
way to the manifestation of ‘Greater Israel’. Israel was expecting collapse of
present Iranian Regime, and replacing it with an amenable political and
military hierarchy; but that did not happen. Also Israel was busy capturing
Lebanon’s territory to annex it as part of Israel . They have succeeded in
doing that to a great extent. Thus the initial delay in accepting the ceasefire
can now be explained.
For Netanyahu it would be a stalemate if they continue fighting, but the
moment the dust of war settles down, he might face some grave problems in
domestic politics. So Israel may accept an immediate ceasefire, just to
recoup and refresh, without any long term settlement that may help Iran .
Iran And The Present Regime. The late Ali Khamenai enjoyed a lot of respect
not only in Iran, but also across other Shiites Muslims elsewhere . But the
last riots (instigated and abetted by CIA and MOSSAD) all across Iran ,prior
to the War, shook the present regime. People took to streets due to
economic difficulties mainly because of international and American
sanctions. The harsh laws on some other aspects could also be a
contributing factor. This small insurrection was put down ruthlessly but
successfully. And as the Iranian negotiators had nearly accepted very low or
no enrichment of uranium (which would have been an unpopular decision), ,
came the US-Israel attack that galvanized the Iranian Nation under the
banner of present government, specially after the martyrdom of Khamenai .
So IRGC and present government after successfully fighting back gallantly
in highly asymmetric environment, can never show any weakness on the
table of negotiations. That would be a death knell for this regime, thus their
unwavering resolve, and denial to negotiate under threats and violations of
ceasefire.
Arab States. There is a clear split within countries of Middle East regarding
the end state of this war. Few are still closely bonded with American and
Israeli objectives, as they are weary of a resurgent Iran and its influence in
the region. There are other Arab countries with a better understanding of
emerging multipolarity, and they wish to break away from the US orbit. Also
the new alliances forging between Saudia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye and
Egypt etc, encouraged by China and maybe Russia, is a sign of their
understanding the new geopolitical realities. The present blockade of Straits
of Hormuz, and stalemate in the peace process, is hurting their economies.
So the majority of major powers in ME would support the peace process.
CONCLUSION. Gleaning through all the above mentioned aspects, it seems,
that logically the post war meetings and events should lead to a permanent
ceasefire, not withstanding the detractors that have been mentioned. The
whole world is anxiously waiting for Straits of Hormuz to open, and maritime
traffic to normalize. However, wars do not follow a predictable or logical
trajectories, specially when personalities like Donald Trump, Natenyahu , and
a religiously motivated regime, etc are involved. As far as Pakistan’s efforts
(duly supported by all important countries, including China), are concerned,
their sincerity and effectiveness are above board. Any failure to achieve a
permanent agreement will be attributable to the lack of trust among the
belligerents , and will not undermine the hard work and sincerity of countries
that are trying to bring peace in the region.
LET US ACT, HOPE AND PRAY FOR THE BEST
24 Apr 2026